Bayes FC

football power rankings from the betting market
ratings as of · last rebuilt

Is the Premier League stronger than Serie A?
Level is the average rating of each league's clubs on the global scale (attack + defence, from closing betting-market prices). The goal ratio is what the gap means on the pitch: goals an average club of the stronger league scores for each one it concedes to an average club of the other, on neutral ground. The record is every Champions League, Europa League and Conference League meeting between the two leagues' clubs — their best sides, over seasons the ratings have moved past, so it is history, not the measurement.

As of 28 October 2026, the Premier League is stronger than Serie A: an average Premier League club would score 1.72 goals for every one it concedes against an average Serie A club on neutral ground. In European competition since 2022-23, Premier League clubs have won 20, drawn 6 and lost 10 of 36 meetings with Serie A clubs.

League strength
The average rating of each league's clubs on the global scale — every club rating and trend line above is relative to it. Hover the trend for where the season started.

#LeagueLevel
1Premier League20 clubs+0.70
4Serie A20 clubs+0.16

Premier League vs Serie A in Europe
Every Champions League, Europa League and Conference League meeting between Premier League and Serie A clubs since 2022-23, counted from the Premier League side. Each club is placed in the league it played in that season. Euro clubs are each league's best, not its average, so this is history beside the rating, not part of it.

SeasonPWDLGFGAGD
2026-27320154+1
2025-2610802228+14
2024-25934296+3
2023-24621339-6
2022-238512116+5
All36206105033+17

Meetings

DateCompetitionHomeScoreAway
22 Oct 2026UEFA Europa LeagueBournemouth3–0AC MilanW
21 Oct 2026UEFA Champions LeagueComo4–1Manchester UtdL
9 Sep 2026UEFA Champions LeagueNapoli0–1ArsenalW
16 Apr 2026UEFA Europa LeagueAston Villa4–0BolognaW
16 Apr 2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueFiorentina2–1Crystal PalaceL
9 Apr 2026UEFA Europa LeagueBologna1–3Aston VillaW
9 Apr 2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueCrystal Palace3–0FiorentinaW
28 Jan 2026UEFA Champions LeagueNapoli2–3ChelseaW
20 Jan 2026UEFA Champions LeagueInter1–3ArsenalW
9 Dec 2025UEFA Champions LeagueAtalanta2–1ChelseaL
9 Dec 2025UEFA Champions LeagueInter0–1LiverpoolW
25 Sep 2025UEFA Europa LeagueAston Villa1–0BolognaW
18 Sep 2025UEFA Champions LeagueManchester City2–0NapoliW
11 Dec 2024UEFA Champions LeagueJuventus2–0Manchester CityL
28 Nov 2024UEFA Europa LeagueTottenham2–2RomaD
21 earlier meetings
DateCompetitionHomeScoreAway
27 Nov 2024UEFA Champions LeagueAston Villa0–0JuventusD
6 Nov 2024UEFA Champions LeagueInter1–0ArsenalL
22 Oct 2024UEFA Champions LeagueAston Villa2–0BolognaW
2 Oct 2024UEFA Champions LeagueLiverpool2–0BolognaW
19 Sep 2024UEFA Champions LeagueAtalanta0–0ArsenalD
18 Sep 2024UEFA Champions LeagueManchester City0–0InterD
17 Sep 2024UEFA Champions LeagueAC Milan1–3LiverpoolW
18 Apr 2024UEFA Europa LeagueAtalanta0–1LiverpoolW
11 Apr 2024UEFA Europa LeagueLiverpool0–3AtalantaL
14 Mar 2024UEFA Europa LeagueBrighton1–0RomaW
7 Mar 2024UEFA Europa LeagueRoma4–0BrightonL
13 Dec 2023UEFA Champions LeagueNewcastle1–2AC MilanL
19 Sep 2023UEFA Champions LeagueAC Milan0–0NewcastleD
10 Jun 2023UEFA Champions LeagueManchester City1–0InterW
7 Jun 2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueFiorentina1–2West HamW
8 Mar 2023UEFA Champions LeagueTottenham0–0AC MilanD
14 Feb 2023UEFA Champions LeagueAC Milan1–0TottenhamL
1 Nov 2022UEFA Champions LeagueLiverpool2–0NapoliW
11 Oct 2022UEFA Champions LeagueAC Milan0–2ChelseaW
5 Oct 2022UEFA Champions LeagueChelsea3–0AC MilanW
7 Sep 2022UEFA Champions LeagueNapoli4–1LiverpoolL

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