Bayes FC

team ratings from the betting market
ratings as of · last rebuilt

Methodology

These ratings are derived from the betting market. Closing prices are turned into an expected number of goals for each match, and a statistical model estimates the attacking and defensive strength those prices imply for every team. They update daily as new prices come in.

A team’s rating is its attack plus defence. Within a league the numbers rank teams directly; the global ladder places leagues on one experimental, cross-league scale (beta).

Frequently asked

How are these ratings calculated?

They are derived from the betting market. Closing prices are turned into an expected number of goals for each match, and a statistical model estimates the attacking and defensive strength those prices imply for every team. The ratings update every day as new prices come in.

What does a team's rating number mean?

A team's rating is its attack plus its defence, shown as a deviation from its league's average — a higher number is a stronger team. Within a league the numbers rank teams directly.

Are the ratings comparable across leagues?

Within a league, yes. Across leagues only on the experimental global ladder, which places every league on one common scale and is still labelled beta.

How often are the ratings updated?

Every day. Each page shows when it was last rebuilt, and the ratings reflect the most recent closing prices available.

About. Bayes FC is built and maintained by Belkacem. The ratings are rebuilt every day from the latest closing prices. Cite them as “Ratings: Bayes FC (bayesfc.com)”.