These ratings are derived from the betting market. Closing prices are turned into an expected number of goals for each match, and a statistical model estimates the attacking and defensive strength those prices imply for every team. They update daily as new prices come in.
A team’s rating is its attack plus defence. Within a league the numbers rank teams directly; the global ladder places every league on one comparable, cross-league scale.
The Leagues page projects where each club is likely to finish. Every remaining fixture is simulated many times from the same market-implied ratings — a plausible score is drawn for each side — and the final tables are tallied into a finishing-position distribution, the shaded strip, from which Title, Top 4 and Relegation probabilities follow. This is experimental and not yet independently validated: unlike the ratings, it has not been checked against held-out results, a just-promoted club with no market history is treated as its league’s weakest existing side, and relegation play-off berths are not modelled. Treat it as an illustration, not a settled forecast.
They are derived from the betting market. Closing prices are turned into an expected number of goals for each match, and a statistical model estimates the attacking and defensive strength those prices imply for every team. The ratings update every day as new prices come in.
A team's rating is its attack plus its defence, shown as a deviation from its league's average — a higher number is a stronger team. Within a league the numbers rank teams directly.
Yes. The global ladder places every league on one common scale, so clubs from different leagues can be compared directly; the per-league tables rank clubs within a single league.
Every day. Each page shows when it was last rebuilt, and the ratings reflect the most recent closing prices available.
It flags a club whose rating is meaningfully less certain than most, usually because the market hasn't priced many of its games recently — a newly promoted side, or one with few European fixtures. Hovering the badge shows the 95% range the true strength very likely sits in, or says so when there isn't enough data to estimate one at all. Most clubs carry no badge: the model is reasonably confident in their rating. The uncertainty reflects fitting the ratings, not day-to-day swings in form, so treat it as a floor on the real uncertainty.
Betting markets are the most accurate predictor in football. We distill them into team ratings and email you who’s climbing and who’s quietly falling.