Bayes FC

football power rankings from the betting market
ratings as of · last rebuilt

Arsenal

Premier League
Rating+1.50
In league+0.79vs league average
Attack+0.64
Defence+0.85
Global rank1of 132
League rank1of 20
Games priced171

Strength over time
Rating, attack and defence after each daily fit, relative to the league average — zero is an average club in this league; a whole league moving does not show here (see Leagues). Dots are results; marks along the foot are club news, which never moves the rating. Drag to pan, pinch or shift-scroll to zoom, or use the slider; click a legend entry to hide a line.

Win / draw / lossNews

Get Arsenal’s moves every week.

One email a week: where Arsenal moved on the ladder, what it cost them, and what the next fixture is worth.

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Season projection beta
Where the club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings. The strip is the chance of each finishing position, 1st on the left, darker more likely. Experimental — see the methodology.

xPos1.5
Title55%
Top 4100%
Relegation–
Played8
Points21
Goals13–5+8
15101520

Recent results
Every played match on record, from either feed. A match marked not priced yet has a scoreline but no closing price, so the rating has not seen it: the score arrives within a day, the price a few days later.

DateCompetitionOpponentScore
10-24Premier LeagueHEverton2–0W
10-21UEFA Champions LeagueABayern Munich2–2D
10-18Premier LeagueANottingham Forest0–1W
10-13UEFA Champions LeagueHLille3–0W
10-10Premier LeagueHLeeds2–1W
09-19Premier LeagueABrighton3–0L
09-12Premier LeagueASunderland0–2W
09-09UEFA Champions LeagueANapoli0–1W
09-06Premier LeagueHChelsea2–1W
08-31Premier LeagueAAston Villa0–1W
08-21Premier LeagueHCoventry3–0W
05-30UEFA Champions LeagueAParis SG1–1D
05-24Premier LeagueACrystal Palace1–2W
05-18Premier LeagueHBurnley1–0W
05-10Premier LeagueAWest Ham0–1W

Latest 15 of 52 on record

Upcoming
The next fixtures, each shaded by the opponent's published rating — darker is a harder game, on one scale across every league. A dash is an opponent with no published rating (a lower-division cup side).

DateCompetitionOpponentOpp rating
11-01Premier LeagueALiverpool+1.09
11-04UEFA Champions LeagueASlavia Prague–
11-07Premier LeagueHHull-0.01
11-21Premier LeagueANewcastle+0.68
11-29Premier LeagueHManchester City+1.37
12-02Premier LeagueABrentford+0.78
12-06Premier LeagueATottenham+0.75

Club news
Assembled automatically once a day by a language model reading public reporting. Descriptive only — nothing here moves a rating — and unverified: read an item as a lead, not a fact. A date marked learned is the day we picked the item up, not necessarily the day it happened. What news can explain is why the market repriced a club, which is upstream of the number.

DateTypeHeadline
10-21 InjuryBukayo Saka — Bukayo Saka suffered a quadriceps injury.
10-01 InjuryChristos Tzolis — Christos Tzolis suffered a leg injury while playing for Greece against the Netherlands and was forced off in the 18th minute.
09-25 InjuryKai Havertz — Kai Havertz sustained a hamstring injury and withdrew from the Germany national team squad.
09-24 InjuryKai Havertz — Kai Havertz suffered a muscle injury during international duty with Germany.
09-22 ContractMikel Arteta — Mikel Arteta agreed a long-term contract extension to remain manager of Arsenal.
09-04 ReturnJurrien Timber — Jurrien Timber returned to first team training after recovering from a groin injury.
09-04 InjuryCristhian Mosquera — Cristhian Mosquera underwent assessment for a hamstring issue sustained against Aston Villa.
09-01 Transfer outGabriel Jesus — Gabriel Jesus transferred to Barcelona.
08-28 Transfer inIgor Tyjon — Arsenal signed forward Igor Tyjon from Blackburn Rovers.
08-21 Transfer inEzri Konsa — Arsenal completed the signing of Ezri Konsa from Aston Villa.

Automated and unverified — a lead, not a fact.