Bayes FC

football power rankings from the betting market
ratings as of · last rebuilt

Aston Villa

Premier League
Rating+0.70
In league+0.00vs league average
Attack+0.37
Defence+0.33
Global rank20of 132 · ▲2 this week
League rank10of 20
Games priced167

Strength over time
Rating, attack and defence after each daily fit, relative to the league average — zero is an average club in this league; a whole league moving does not show here (see Leagues). Dots are results; marks along the foot are club news, which never moves the rating. Drag to pan, pinch or shift-scroll to zoom, or use the slider; click a legend entry to hide a line.

Win / draw / lossNews

Get Aston Villa’s moves every week.

One email a week: where Aston Villa moved on the ladder, what it cost them, and what the next fixture is worth.

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Season projection beta
Where the club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings. The strip is the chance of each finishing position, 1st on the left, darker more likely. Experimental — see the methodology.

xPos9.4
Title–
Top 45%
Relegation1%
Played8
Points11
Goals9–12-3
15101520

Recent results
Every played match on record, from either feed. A match marked not priced yet has a scoreline but no closing price, so the rating has not seen it: the score arrives within a day, the price a few days later.

DateCompetitionOpponentScore
10-24Premier LeagueHManchester City2–1W
10-21UEFA Champions LeagueHViking FK3–1W
10-17Premier LeagueANewcastle0–1W
10-14UEFA Champions LeagueHFenerbahce Istanbul6–0W
10-10Premier LeagueHBrentford2–2D
09-19Premier LeagueATottenham2–3W
09-12Premier LeagueHNottingham Forest1–2L
09-08UEFA Champions LeagueAClub Brugge2–3W
09-05Premier LeagueAHull0–0D
08-31Premier LeagueHArsenal0–1L
08-23Premier LeagueABrighton4–0L
05-24Premier LeagueAManchester City1–2W
05-20UEFA Europa LeagueAFreiburg0–3W
05-15Premier LeagueHLiverpool4–2W
05-10Premier LeagueABurnley2–2D

Latest 15 of 52 on record

Upcoming
The next fixtures, each shaded by the opponent's published rating — darker is a harder game, on one scale across every league. A dash is an opponent with no published rating (a lower-division cup side).

DateCompetitionOpponentOpp rating
10-31Premier LeagueHFulham+0.55
11-03UEFA Champions LeagueABarcelona+1.39
11-08Premier LeagueAManchester Utd+0.85
11-21Premier LeagueHSunderland+0.50
11-28Premier LeagueAIpswich+0.24
12-02Premier LeagueHEverton+0.59
12-05Premier LeagueHCrystal Palace+0.41

Club news
Assembled automatically once a day by a language model reading public reporting. Descriptive only — nothing here moves a rating — and unverified: read an item as a lead, not a fact. A date marked learned is the day we picked the item up, not necessarily the day it happened. What news can explain is why the market repriced a club, which is upstream of the number.

DateTypeHeadline
10-13 InjuryMatteo Ruggeri — Matteo Ruggeri is ruled out for more than one month with a hamstring injury.
09-12 InjuryIan Maatsen — Ian Maatsen suffered an ankle injury late in Aston Villa's defeat to Nottingham Forest.
09-07 InjuryLeon Goretzka — Leon Goretzka suffered an injury setback in training ruling him out of Aston Villa's upcoming fixtures.
08-30 Transfer outEmiliano Martínez — Aston Villa sold goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez to Chelsea.
08-28 Transfer inNicolas Jackson — Aston Villa signed striker Nicolas Jackson from Chelsea.
08-27 Transfer inLeon Goretzka — Aston Villa signed Leon Goretzka on a free transfer.
08-23 learnedInjuryTammy Abraham — Tammy Abraham was ruled out with an undisclosed injury.
08-21 Transfer outEzri Konsa — Aston Villa completed the sale of Ezri Konsa to Arsenal.

Automated and unverified — a lead, not a fact.