Bayes FC

football power rankings from the betting market
ratings as of · last rebuilt

Newcastle

Premier League
Rating+0.68
In league-0.03vs league average
Attack+0.39
Defence+0.28
Global rank21of 132 · ▼2 this week
League rank11of 20
Games priced164

Strength over time
Rating, attack and defence after each daily fit, relative to the league average — zero is an average club in this league; a whole league moving does not show here (see Leagues). Dots are results; marks along the foot are club news, which never moves the rating. Drag to pan, pinch or shift-scroll to zoom, or use the slider; click a legend entry to hide a line.

Win / draw / lossNews

Get Newcastle’s moves every week.

One email a week: where Newcastle moved on the ladder, what it cost them, and what the next fixture is worth.

Powered by Buttondown.

Season projection beta
Where the club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings. The strip is the chance of each finishing position, 1st on the left, darker more likely. Experimental — see the methodology.

xPos10.6
Title–
Top 43%
Relegation3%
Played8
Points11
Goals12–14-2
15101520

Recent results
Every played match on record, from either feed. A match marked not priced yet has a scoreline but no closing price, so the rating has not seen it: the score arrives within a day, the price a few days later.

DateCompetitionOpponentScore
10-25Premier LeagueACrystal Palace0–2W
10-17Premier LeagueHAston Villa0–1L
10-12Premier LeagueACoventry4–1L
09-19Premier LeagueHHull2–1W
09-14Premier LeagueALeeds4–1L
09-05Premier LeagueHBournemouth2–2D
08-29Premier LeagueATottenham0–2W
08-23Premier LeagueHLiverpool2–2D
05-24Premier LeagueAFulham2–0L
05-17Premier LeagueHWest Ham3–1W
05-10Premier LeagueANottingham Forest1–1D
05-02Premier LeagueHBrighton3–1W
04-25Premier LeagueAArsenal1–0L
04-18Premier LeagueHBournemouth1–2L
04-12Premier LeagueACrystal Palace2–1L

Latest 15 of 46 on record

Upcoming
The next fixtures, each shaded by the opponent's published rating — darker is a harder game, on one scale across every league. A dash is an opponent with no published rating (a lower-division cup side).

DateCompetitionOpponentOpp rating
11-02Premier LeagueHEverton+0.59
11-07Premier LeagueAFulham+0.55
11-21Premier LeagueHArsenal+1.50
11-29Premier LeagueABrighton+0.90
12-02Premier LeagueHManchester Utd+0.85
12-06Premier LeagueHSunderland+0.50

Club news
Assembled automatically once a day by a language model reading public reporting. Descriptive only — nothing here moves a rating — and unverified: read an item as a lead, not a fact. A date marked learned is the day we picked the item up, not necessarily the day it happened. What news can explain is why the market repriced a club, which is upstream of the number.

DateTypeHeadline
09-25 InjuryTino Livramento — Tino Livramento withdrew from the England squad because of an injury.
09-15 learnedInjuryAnthony Elanga — Anthony Elanga was confirmed absent due to injury.
09-14 InjuryNico Gonzalez — Nico Gonzalez was substituted in the 19th minute with a concussion during the match against Leeds United.
08-23 learnedInjuryDan Burn — Dan Burn was sidelined with an ankle injury.

Automated and unverified — a lead, not a fact.