Bayes FC

football power rankings from the betting market
ratings as of · last rebuilt

Is Serie A stronger than the Bundesliga?
Level is the average rating of each league's clubs on the global scale (attack + defence, from closing betting-market prices). The goal ratio is what the gap means on the pitch: goals an average club of the stronger league scores for each one it concedes to an average club of the other, on neutral ground. The record is every Champions League, Europa League and Conference League meeting between the two leagues' clubs — their best sides, over seasons the ratings have moved past, so it is history, not the measurement.

As of 28 October 2026, the Bundesliga is stronger than Serie A: an average Bundesliga club would score 1.06 goals for every one it concedes against an average Serie A club on neutral ground. In European competition since 2022-23, Serie A clubs have won 19, drawn 8 and lost 12 of 39 meetings with Bundesliga clubs.

League strength
The average rating of each league's clubs on the global scale — every club rating and trend line above is relative to it. Hover the trend for where the season started.

#LeagueLevel
3Bundesliga18 clubs+0.22
4Serie A20 clubs+0.16

Serie A vs Bundesliga in Europe
Every Champions League, Europa League and Conference League meeting between Serie A and Bundesliga clubs since 2022-23, counted from the Serie A side. Each club is placed in the league it played in that season. Euro clubs are each league's best, not its average, so this is history beside the rating, not part of it.

SeasonPWDLGFGAGD
2026-27110041+3
2025-26114341920-1
2024-2510613149+5
2023-249333911-2
2022-23851294+5
All39198125545+10

Meetings

DateCompetitionHomeScoreAway
10 Sep 2026UEFA Champions LeagueComo4–1RB LeipzigW
18 Mar 2026UEFA Champions LeagueBayern Munich4–1AtalantaL
10 Mar 2026UEFA Champions LeagueAtalanta1–6Bayern MunichL
25 Feb 2026UEFA Champions LeagueAtalanta4–1DortmundW
17 Feb 2026UEFA Champions LeagueDortmund2–0AtalantaL
28 Jan 2026UEFA Champions LeagueDortmund0–2InterW
22 Jan 2026UEFA Europa LeagueRoma2–0StuttgartW
26 Nov 2025UEFA Champions LeagueEin Frankfurt0–3AtalantaW
6 Nov 2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueMainz2–1FiorentinaL
4 Nov 2025UEFA Champions LeagueNapoli0–0Ein FrankfurtD
2 Oct 2025UEFA Europa LeagueBologna1–1FreiburgD
16 Sep 2025UEFA Champions LeagueJuventus4–4DortmundD
16 Apr 2025UEFA Champions LeagueInter2–2Bayern MunichD
8 Apr 2025UEFA Champions LeagueBayern Munich1–2InterW
30 Jan 2025UEFA Europa LeagueRoma2–0Ein FrankfurtW
24 earlier meetings
DateCompetitionHomeScoreAway
21 Jan 2025UEFA Champions LeagueBologna2–1DortmundW
10 Dec 2024UEFA Champions LeagueLeverkusen1–0InterL
26 Nov 2024UEFA Champions LeagueInter1–0RB LeipzigW
6 Nov 2024UEFA Champions LeagueStuttgart0–2AtalantaW
22 Oct 2024UEFA Champions LeagueJuventus0–1StuttgartL
2 Oct 2024UEFA Champions LeagueRB Leipzig2–3JuventusW
1 Oct 2024UEFA Champions LeagueLeverkusen1–0AC MilanL
22 May 2024UEFA Europa LeagueAtalanta3–0LeverkusenW
9 May 2024UEFA Europa LeagueLeverkusen2–2RomaD
2 May 2024UEFA Europa LeagueRoma0–2LeverkusenL
5 Mar 2024UEFA Champions LeagueBayern Munich3–0LazioL
14 Feb 2024UEFA Champions LeagueLazio1–0Bayern MunichW
28 Nov 2023UEFA Champions LeagueAC Milan1–3DortmundL
8 Nov 2023UEFA Champions LeagueNapoli1–1Union BerlinD
24 Oct 2023UEFA Champions LeagueUnion Berlin0–1NapoliW
4 Oct 2023UEFA Champions LeagueDortmund0–0AC MilanD
18 May 2023UEFA Europa LeagueLeverkusen0–0RomaD
11 May 2023UEFA Europa LeagueRoma1–0LeverkusenW
16 Mar 2023UEFA Europa LeagueFreiburg0–2JuventusW
15 Mar 2023UEFA Champions LeagueNapoli3–0Ein FrankfurtW
9 Mar 2023UEFA Europa LeagueJuventus1–0FreiburgW
21 Feb 2023UEFA Champions LeagueEin Frankfurt0–2NapoliW
1 Nov 2022UEFA Champions LeagueBayern Munich2–0InterL
7 Sep 2022UEFA Champions LeagueInter0–2Bayern MunichL

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