Bayes FC

football power rankings from the betting market
ratings as of · last rebuilt

Is La Liga stronger than the Bundesliga?
Level is the average rating of each league's clubs on the global scale (attack + defence, from closing betting-market prices). The goal ratio is what the gap means on the pitch: goals an average club of the stronger league scores for each one it concedes to an average club of the other, on neutral ground. The record is every Champions League, Europa League and Conference League meeting between the two leagues' clubs — their best sides, over seasons the ratings have moved past, so it is history, not the measurement.

As of 28 October 2026, La Liga is stronger than the Bundesliga: an average La Liga club would score 1.11 goals for every one it concedes against an average Bundesliga club on neutral ground. In European competition since 2022-23, La Liga clubs have won 17, drawn 5 and lost 16 of 38 meetings with Bundesliga clubs.

League strength
The average rating of each league's clubs on the global scale — every club rating and trend line above is relative to it. Hover the trend for where the season started.

#LeagueLevel
2La Liga20 clubs+0.33
3Bundesliga18 clubs+0.22

La Liga vs Bundesliga in Europe
Every Champions League, Europa League and Conference League meeting between La Liga and Bundesliga clubs since 2022-23, counted from the La Liga side. Each club is placed in the league it played in that season. Euro clubs are each league's best, not its average, so this is history beside the rating, not part of it.

SeasonPWDLGFGAGD
2026-27311175+2
2025-26102081427-13
2024-2587012411+13
2023-2496211611+5
2022-238125817-9
All38175166971-2

Meetings

DateCompetitionHomeScoreAway
21 Oct 2026UEFA Champions LeagueReal Madrid4–1RB LeipzigW
20 Oct 2026UEFA Champions LeagueStuttgart1–1Atletico MadridD
8 Sep 2026UEFA Champions LeagueDortmund3–2VillarrealL
16 Apr 2026UEFA Europa LeagueCelta Vigo1–3FreiburgL
15 Apr 2026UEFA Champions LeagueBayern Munich4–3Real MadridL
9 Apr 2026UEFA Europa LeagueFreiburg3–0Celta VigoL
7 Apr 2026UEFA Champions LeagueReal Madrid1–2Bayern MunichL
28 Jan 2026UEFA Champions LeagueLeverkusen3–0VillarrealL
9 Dec 2025UEFA Champions LeagueBarcelona2–1Ein FrankfurtW
25 Nov 2025UEFA Champions LeagueDortmund4–0VillarrealL
1 Oct 2025UEFA Champions LeagueDortmund4–1Athletic BilbaoL
30 Sep 2025UEFA Champions LeagueAtletico Madrid5–1Ein FrankfurtW
25 Sep 2025UEFA Europa LeagueStuttgart2–1Celta VigoL
15 Apr 2025UEFA Champions LeagueDortmund3–1BarcelonaL
9 Apr 2025UEFA Champions LeagueBarcelona4–0DortmundW
23 earlier meetings
DateCompetitionHomeScoreAway
21 Jan 2025UEFA Champions LeagueAtletico Madrid2–1LeverkusenW
11 Dec 2024UEFA Champions LeagueDortmund2–3BarcelonaW
23 Oct 2024UEFA Champions LeagueBarcelona4–1Bayern MunichW
22 Oct 2024UEFA Champions LeagueReal Madrid5–2DortmundW
19 Sep 2024UEFA Champions LeagueAtletico Madrid2–1RB LeipzigW
17 Sep 2024UEFA Champions LeagueReal Madrid3–1StuttgartW
1 Jun 2024UEFA Champions LeagueDortmund0–2Real MadridW
8 May 2024UEFA Champions LeagueReal Madrid2–1Bayern MunichW
30 Apr 2024UEFA Champions LeagueBayern Munich2–2Real MadridD
16 Apr 2024UEFA Champions LeagueDortmund4–2Atletico MadridL
10 Apr 2024UEFA Champions LeagueAtletico Madrid2–1DortmundW
6 Mar 2024UEFA Champions LeagueReal Madrid1–1RB LeipzigD
13 Feb 2024UEFA Champions LeagueRB Leipzig0–1Real MadridW
12 Dec 2023UEFA Champions LeagueUnion Berlin2–3Real MadridW
20 Sep 2023UEFA Champions LeagueReal Madrid1–0Union BerlinW
26 Oct 2022UEFA Champions LeagueAtletico Madrid2–2LeverkusenD
26 Oct 2022UEFA Champions LeagueBarcelona0–3Bayern MunichL
25 Oct 2022UEFA Champions LeagueRB Leipzig3–2Real MadridL
11 Oct 2022UEFA Champions LeagueDortmund1–1SevillaD
5 Oct 2022UEFA Champions LeagueSevilla1–4DortmundL
14 Sep 2022UEFA Champions LeagueReal Madrid2–0RB LeipzigW
13 Sep 2022UEFA Champions LeagueLeverkusen2–0Atletico MadridL
13 Sep 2022UEFA Champions LeagueBayern Munich2–0BarcelonaL

The market knows first.

A weekly email: who’s climbing, who’s quietly falling.

Powered by Buttondown.