Bayes FC

football power rankings from the betting market
ratings as of · last rebuilt

Athletic Bilbao

La Liga
Rating+0.55
In league+0.22vs league average
Attack+0.21
Defence+0.34
Global rank30of 132 · ▼2 this week
League rank4of 20
Games priced163

Strength over time
Rating, attack and defence after each daily fit, relative to the league average — zero is an average club in this league; a whole league moving does not show here (see Leagues). Dots are results; marks along the foot are club news, which never moves the rating. Drag to pan, pinch or shift-scroll to zoom, or use the slider; click a legend entry to hide a line.

Win / draw / lossNews

Get Athletic Bilbao’s moves every week.

One email a week: where Athletic Bilbao moved on the ladder, what it cost them, and what the next fixture is worth.

Powered by Buttondown.

Season projection beta
Where the club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings. The strip is the chance of each finishing position, 1st on the left, darker more likely. Experimental — see the methodology.

xPos6.3
Title–
Top 422%
Relegation–
Played9
Points12
Goals12–9+3
15101520

Recent results
Every played match on record, from either feed. A match marked not priced yet has a scoreline but no closing price, so the rating has not seen it: the score arrives within a day, the price a few days later.

DateCompetitionOpponentScore
10-25La LigaHGetafe4–0W
10-21La LigaALevante3–1L
10-17La LigaAValencia0–0D
09-19La LigaHAlaves0–0D
09-12La LigaHElche1–1D
09-05La LigaHAtletico Madrid3–0W
08-30La LigaACelta Vigo0–2W
08-27La LigaABarcelona2–0L
08-22La LigaHSevilla1–3L
05-23La LigaAReal Madrid4–2L
05-17La LigaHCelta Vigo1–1D
05-13La LigaAEspanyol2–0L
05-10La LigaHValencia0–1L
05-02La LigaAAlaves2–4W
04-25La LigaAAtletico Madrid3–2L

Latest 15 of 42 on record

Upcoming
The next fixtures, each shaded by the opponent's published rating — darker is a harder game, on one scale across every league. A dash is an opponent with no published rating (a lower-division cup side).

DateCompetitionOpponentOpp rating
11-01La LigaHReal Sociedad+0.38
11-07La LigaAOsasuna+0.09
11-20La LigaHEspanyol+0.11
11-29La LigaAMalaga-0.16
12-06La LigaHReal Madrid+1.27

Club news
Assembled automatically once a day by a language model reading public reporting. Descriptive only — nothing here moves a rating — and unverified: read an item as a lead, not a fact. A date marked learned is the day we picked the item up, not necessarily the day it happened. What news can explain is why the market repriced a club, which is upstream of the number.

DateTypeHeadline
10-19 InjuryGorka Guruzeta — Gorka Guruzeta suffered an anterior cruciate ligament tear in his left knee during the match against Valencia.
10-01 learnedInjuryNico Williams — Nico Williams withdrew from the Spain squad due to a thigh injury.

Automated and unverified — a lead, not a fact.