Bayes FC

football power rankings from the betting market
ratings as of · last rebuilt

Real Madrid

La Liga
Rating+1.27
In league+0.94vs league average
Attack+0.74
Defence+0.53
Global rank5of 132
League rank2of 20
Games priced173

Strength over time
Rating, attack and defence after each daily fit, relative to the league average — zero is an average club in this league; a whole league moving does not show here (see Leagues). Dots are results; marks along the foot are club news, which never moves the rating. Drag to pan, pinch or shift-scroll to zoom, or use the slider; click a legend entry to hide a line.

Win / draw / lossNews

Get Real Madrid’s moves every week.

One email a week: where Real Madrid moved on the ladder, what it cost them, and what the next fixture is worth.

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Season projection beta
Where the club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings. The strip is the chance of each finishing position, 1st on the left, darker more likely. Experimental — see the methodology.

xPos1.9
Title22%
Top 4100%
Relegation–
Played10
Points24
Goals25–10+15
15101520

Recent results
Every played match on record, from either feed. A match marked not priced yet has a scoreline but no closing price, so the rating has not seen it: the score arrives within a day, the price a few days later.

DateCompetitionOpponentScore
10-25La LigaABarcelona1–2W
10-21UEFA Champions LeagueHRB Leipzig4–1W
10-18La LigaHSevilla4–1W
10-14UEFA Champions LeagueARoma3–4W
10-10La LigaHVillarreal1–0W
09-20La LigaAAtletico Madrid2–1L
09-15La LigaAElche2–3W
09-12La LigaHRayo Vallecano4–1W
09-08UEFA Champions LeagueHInter2–1W
09-04La LigaAReal Betis1–0L
08-30La LigaHMalaga4–0W
08-26La LigaHReal Sociedad4–1W
08-22La LigaAEspanyol1–2W
05-23La LigaHAthletic Bilbao4–2W
05-17La LigaASevilla0–1W

Latest 15 of 52 on record

Upcoming
The next fixtures, each shaded by the opponent's published rating — darker is a harder game, on one scale across every league. A dash is an opponent with no published rating (a lower-division cup side).

DateCompetitionOpponentOpp rating
11-01La LigaASantander+0.00
11-04UEFA Champions LeagueAAEK Athens–
11-07La LigaAValencia+0.13
11-21La LigaHCelta Vigo+0.30
11-29La LigaHAlaves+0.22
12-06La LigaAAthletic Bilbao+0.55

Club news
Assembled automatically once a day by a language model reading public reporting. Descriptive only — nothing here moves a rating — and unverified: read an item as a lead, not a fact. A date marked learned is the day we picked the item up, not necessarily the day it happened. What news can explain is why the market repriced a club, which is upstream of the number.

DateTypeHeadline
10-25 InjuryThibaut Courtois — Thibaut Courtois was ruled out of El Clasico against Barcelona due to an illness.
10-14 SuspensionVinícius Júnior — The Spanish Football Federation banned Vinícius Júnior for four matches following his red card against Villarreal.
10-10 SuspensionVinicius Junior — Vinicius Junior received a red card for violent conduct against Villarreal.
10-01 InjuryRaúl Asencio — Raúl Asencio underwent surgery for a stress fracture in his right tibia.
09-26 InjuryKylian Mbappé — Real Madrid diagnosed Kylian Mbappé with a hyperextension of the posterior capsule in his left knee.
09-25 InjuryKylian Mbappé — Kylian Mbappe suffered a knee tendon injury while on international duty with France.
09-25 learnedInjuryIbrahima Konaté — Ibrahima Konate suffered a collateral ligament injury in his right leg.
09-24 InjuryIbrahima Konate — Real Madrid confirmed defender Ibrahima Konate sustained a collateral ligament injury to his right leg.
09-22 InjuryFederico Valverde — Federico Valverde was diagnosed with a grade 3 sprain in his left ankle.
09-20 InjuryFederico Valverde — Federico Valverde sustained a severe trauma injury to his left ankle.
09-06 ReturnAurélien Tchouaméni — Aurélien Tchouaméni returned to group training following an injury.
09-05 learnedInjuryMarc Cucurella — Marc Cucurella suffered a muscle injury against Real Betis.
08-31 Transfer inSergio Martínez — Real Madrid completed the signing of Sergio Martínez after triggering his release clause.
08-29 learnedTransfer inSergio Martínez — Real Madrid completed the signing of Sergio Martínez from Racing Santander.

Automated and unverified — a lead, not a fact.