Bayes FC

football power rankings from the betting market
ratings as of · last rebuilt

AC Milan

Serie A
Rating+0.66
In league+0.50vs league average
Attack+0.32
Defence+0.34
Global rank24of 132 · ▼3 this week
League rank5of 20
Games priced162

Strength over time
Rating, attack and defence after each daily fit, relative to the league average — zero is an average club in this league; a whole league moving does not show here (see Leagues). Dots are results; marks along the foot are club news, which never moves the rating. Drag to pan, pinch or shift-scroll to zoom, or use the slider; click a legend entry to hide a line.

Win / draw / lossNews

Get AC Milan’s moves every week.

One email a week: where AC Milan moved on the ladder, what it cost them, and what the next fixture is worth.

Powered by Buttondown.

Season projection beta
Where the club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings. The strip is the chance of each finishing position, 1st on the left, darker more likely. Experimental — see the methodology.

xPos3.9
Title6%
Top 465%
Relegation–
Played8
Points18
Goals16–7+9
15101520

Recent results
Every played match on record, from either feed. A match marked not priced yet has a scoreline but no closing price, so the rating has not seen it: the score arrives within a day, the price a few days later.

DateCompetitionOpponentScore
10-25Serie AAUdinese0–2W
10-22UEFA Europa LeagueABournemouth3–0L
10-18Serie AHAtalanta3–2W
10-15UEFA Europa LeagueAFC Salzburg0–4W
10-11Serie AASassuolo1–1D
09-20Serie AHLecce3–0W
09-16UEFA Europa LeagueHBenfica0–2L
09-12Serie AALazio2–2D
09-06Serie AAJuventus1–1D
08-28Serie AHVenezia2–0W
08-23Serie AATorino1–2W
05-24Serie AHCagliari1–2L
05-17Serie AAGenoa1–2W
05-10Serie AHAtalanta2–3L
05-03Serie AASassuolo2–0L

Latest 15 of 41 on record

Upcoming
The next fixtures, each shaded by the opponent's published rating — darker is a harder game, on one scale across every league. A dash is an opponent with no published rating (a lower-division cup side).

DateCompetitionOpponentOpp rating
10-28Serie AHBologna+0.12
10-31Serie AHInter+0.95
11-05UEFA Europa LeagueHFerencvarosi Budapest–
11-08Serie AAGenoa-0.09
11-22Serie AHFrosinone-0.09
11-30Serie AACagliari-0.23
12-06Serie AHParma-0.46

Club news
Assembled automatically once a day by a language model reading public reporting. Descriptive only — nothing here moves a rating — and unverified: read an item as a lead, not a fact. A date marked learned is the day we picked the item up, not necessarily the day it happened. What news can explain is why the market repriced a club, which is upstream of the number.

DateTypeHeadline
10-25 InjuryRuben Loftus-Cheek — Ruben Loftus-Cheek sustained a medial hamstring muscle tear in his left thigh during the match against Udinese.
10-22 InjurySamuel Chukwueze — Samuel Chukwueze will miss several weeks and began infiltrative therapy after medical checks on a left hip problem.
10-21 InjurySamuel Chukwueze — Samuel Chukwueze suffered a left hip injury in training and was ruled out of upcoming matches.
10-21 InjuryGonçalo Ramos — Gonçalo Ramos suffered a calf muscle overload in training.
10-12 InjuryMatteo Gabbia — Matteo Gabbia suffers a flexor strain with a partial tendon tear and faces months on the sidelines.
10-11 InjuryMatteo Gabbia — Matteo Gabbia suffered a thigh injury and was stretchered off during AC Milan's match against Sassuolo.
10-06 learnedInjuryAlexis Saelemaekers — Alexis Saelemaekers faced a lengthy spell on the sidelines after medical tests showed instability and a setback in his right ankle.
10-05 InjuryPervis Estupiñán — Pervis Estupiñán suffered a knee sprain while on international duty with Ecuador.
09-30 InjuryAlexis Saelemaekers — Alexis Saelemaekers suffered an ankle sprain during training.
09-29 InjuryAlexis Saelemaekers — Alexis Saelemaekers suffered an ankle sprain during training.
09-14 Transfer outIsmael Bennacer — Ismael Bennacer leaves AC Milan after mutually terminating his contract.
09-01 Transfer outYoussouf Fofana — Youssouf Fofana joined Lyon on loan with an option to buy.
09-01 Transfer inOmari Hutchinson — Omari Hutchinson joined AC Milan on loan from Nottingham Forest.
09-01 Transfer outKevin Zeroli — Kevin Zeroli joined Südtirol on loan with an option to buy.
08-31 Transfer inOmari Hutchinson — AC Milan have signed winger Omari Hutchinson on loan from Nottingham Forest with an option to buy.

Latest 15 of 19 on record

Automated and unverified — a lead, not a fact.