Bayes FC

football power rankings from the betting market
ratings as of · last rebuilt

Mainz

Bundesliga
Rating+0.24
In league+0.01vs league average
Attack+0.12
Defence+0.12
Global rank54of 132 · ▼3 this week
League rank8of 18
Games priced145

Strength over time
Rating, attack and defence after each daily fit, relative to the league average — zero is an average club in this league; a whole league moving does not show here (see Leagues). Dots are results; marks along the foot are club news, which never moves the rating. Drag to pan, pinch or shift-scroll to zoom, or use the slider; click a legend entry to hide a line.

Win / draw / lossNews

Get Mainz’s moves every week.

One email a week: where Mainz moved on the ladder, what it cost them, and what the next fixture is worth.

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Season projection beta
Where the club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings. The strip is the chance of each finishing position, 1st on the left, darker more likely. Experimental — see the methodology.

xPos8.9
Title–
Top 45%
Relegation1%
Played7
Points10
Goals16–13+3
15101518

Recent results
Every played match on record, from either feed. A match marked not priced yet has a scoreline but no closing price, so the rating has not seen it: the score arrives within a day, the price a few days later.

DateCompetitionOpponentScore
10-24BundesligaHWerder Bremen2–3L
10-17BundesligaASchalke 040–1W
10-10BundesligaHLeverkusen3–4L
09-19BundesligaAM'gladbach3–4W
09-12BundesligaHEin Frankfurt1–3L
09-06BundesligaAHamburg0–5W
08-29BundesligaHPaderborn0–0D
05-16BundesligaAHeidenheim0–2W
05-10BundesligaHUnion Berlin1–3L
05-03BundesligaASt Pauli1–2W
04-25BundesligaHBayern Munich3–4L
04-19BundesligaAM'gladbach1–1D
04-16UEFA Europa Conference LeagueAStrasbourg4–0L
04-12BundesligaHFreiburg0–1L
04-09UEFA Europa Conference LeagueHStrasbourg2–0W

Latest 15 of 41 on record

Upcoming
The next fixtures, each shaded by the opponent's published rating — darker is a harder game, on one scale across every league. A dash is an opponent with no published rating (a lower-division cup side).

DateCompetitionOpponentOpp rating
10-30BundesligaAElversberg-0.11
11-07BundesligaHBayern Munich+1.36
11-22BundesligaAAugsburg-0.00
11-28BundesligaHUnion Berlin-0.20
12-05BundesligaARB Leipzig+0.49

Club news
Assembled automatically once a day by a language model reading public reporting. Descriptive only — nothing here moves a rating — and unverified: read an item as a lead, not a fact. A date marked learned is the day we picked the item up, not necessarily the day it happened. What news can explain is why the market repriced a club, which is upstream of the number.

DateTypeHeadline
10-13 ReturnSilas Katompa Mvumpa — Silas Katompa Mvumpa returned to partial team training following a broken tibia and fibula.
10-06 ReturnPaul Nebel — Paul Nebel returned to team training following an injury.
10-06 ReturnSilvan Widmer — Silvan Widmer returned to team training following an injury.
10-06 ReturnFabio Gruber — Fabio Gruber returned to team training following an injury.
09-15 InjuryRobin Zentner — Robin Zentner is sidelined for several weeks after sustaining a hand injury.
09-10 InjurySilvan Widmer — Silvan Widmer sustained a patellar tendon injury in his left knee and will be sidelined for several weeks.
09-02 ContractMarco Richter — Mainz 05 terminated the contract of midfielder Marco Richter by mutual agreement.
08-28 Transfer outWilliam Bøving — 1. FSV Mainz 05 loaned forward William Bøving to 1. FC Nürnberg for the 2026–27 season.

Automated and unverified — a lead, not a fact.