Bayes FC

team ratings from the betting market
ratings as of · last rebuilt

Mainz

Bundesliga
Rating+0.15
In league-0.04vs league average
Attack+0.07
Defence+0.08
Global rank62of 132
League rank8of 18
Games priced140

Strength over time

Rating, attack and defence after each daily fit, all relative to the league average — zero is an average club in this league. A whole league moving up or down does not show here; see leagues for that. Dots are results. Marks along the foot are club news; they never move the rating.

-0.2+0.01 Feb30 May12 SepWDWLWLDLWWWDDDLW
RatingAttackDefenceWin / draw / lossClub news

Season projection beta

Where the club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings. The strip is the chance of each finishing position, 1st on the left, darker = more likely. Experimental — see methodology.

xPos9.3
Title
Top 45%
Relegation2%
Played2
Points4
Goals5–0+5
15101518

Recent results

Every played match on record, from either feed. A match marked not priced yet has a scoreline but no closing price, so the rating above has not seen it — the score arrives within a day, the price a few days later.

DateCompetitionOpponentScore
09-06BundesligaAHamburg0–5W
08-29BundesligaHPaderborn0–0D
05-16BundesligaAHeidenheim0–2W
05-10BundesligaHUnion Berlin1–3L
05-03BundesligaASt Pauli1–2W
04-25BundesligaHBayern Munich3–4L
04-19BundesligaAM'gladbach1–1D
04-12BundesligaHFreiburg0–1L
04-04BundesligaAHoffenheim1–2W
03-22BundesligaHEin Frankfurt2–1W
03-15BundesligaAWerder Bremen0–2W
03-07BundesligaHStuttgart2–2D
02-28BundesligaALeverkusen1–1D
02-20BundesligaHHamburg1–1D
02-13BundesligaADortmund4–0L

Showing the most recent 15 of 34 on record.

Upcoming

The next fixtures on the schedule, each shaded by how strong the opponent is — a darker cell is a harder game. The shading runs on one scale across every league, so two clubs’ runs can be compared directly. An opponent with no published rating (a lower-division cup side) prints a dash.

DateCompetitionOpponentOpp rating
09-12BundesligaHEin Frankfurt+0.11
09-19BundesligaAM'gladbach-0.04
10-10BundesligaHLeverkusen+0.58
10-17BundesligaASchalke 04-0.07
10-24BundesligaHWerder Bremen-0.03

Club news

What the daily news sweep recorded about this club.

DateTypeHeadline
09-10 InjurySilvan Widmer — Silvan Widmer sustained a patellar tendon injury in his left knee and will be sidelined for several weeks.
09-02 ContractMarco Richter — Mainz 05 terminated the contract of midfielder Marco Richter by mutual agreement.
08-28 Transfer outWilliam Bøving — 1. FSV Mainz 05 loaned forward William Bøving to 1. FC Nürnberg for the 2026–27 season.

Club news is assembled automatically once a day by a language model reading public reporting. It is descriptive only — nothing here moves a rating — and it is unverified: read an item as a lead, not a fact. A date marked learned is the day we picked the item up, not necessarily the day it happened. What news can explain is why the market repriced a club, which is upstream of the number.

← All clubs · Global ladder

The market knows first. Now so do you.

Betting markets are the most accurate predictor in football. We distill them into team ratings and email you who’s climbing and who’s quietly falling.

Powered by Buttondown.