Bayes FC

football power rankings from the betting market
ratings as of · last rebuilt

Who will be relegated from the Premier League this season?
Where each club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings; darker is more likely. Releg is the share of simulated seasons the club finishes in a relegation place. Clubs in danger folds those shares into one number, no lower than the number of places. Experimental — see the methodology.

As of 6 November 2026, the Premier League relegation race has 7.3 effective clubs in danger, down 0.1 this week. Hull is the most likely to be relegated from the Premier League at 81%, ahead of Coventry (61%) and Ipswich (43%).

#TeamRatingxPos15101520TitleTop 4Rel
1Arsenal+0.801.469%100%–
2Manchester City+0.672.028%98%–
3Liverpool+0.414.21%67%–
4Brighton+0.204.51%59%–
5Chelsea+0.285.1–46%–
6Brentford+0.078.1–9%–
7Bournemouth+0.058.8–6%1%
8Tottenham+0.059.5–4%1%
9Aston Villa+0.009.7–4%1%
10Manchester Utd+0.1710.0–3%2%
11Leeds-0.0611.0–2%3%
12Everton-0.1211.2–1%3%
13Newcastle-0.0411.6–1%4%
14Fulham-0.1313.7––12%
15Nottingham Forest-0.1214.4––18%
16Sunderland-0.2215.9––33%
17Crystal Palace-0.3016.2––38%
18Ipswich-0.4716.6––43%
19Coventry-0.5017.6––61%
20Hull-0.7318.7––81%

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