Bayes FC

team ratings from the betting market

ratings as of 2026-09-21 · last rebuilt 2026-09-21 05:45 UTC

Who will be relegated from the Premier League this season?
Where each club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings; darker is more likely. Releg is the share of simulated seasons the club finishes in a relegation place. Experimental — see the methodology.

As of 21 September 2026, Hull is the most likely to be relegated from the Premier League at 78%, ahead of Coventry (71%) and Ipswich (42%).

#	Team	Rating	xPos	1				5					10					15					20	Title	Top 4	Rel
1	Manchester City	+0.68	1.6																					53%	99%	–
2	Arsenal	+0.78	1.8																					43%	99%	–
3	Liverpool	+0.40	4.1																					3%	68%	–
4	Chelsea	+0.32	5.3																					1%	46%	–
5	Manchester Utd	+0.30	6.3																					–	30%	–
6	Brighton	+0.10	6.8																					–	24%	–
7	Brentford	+0.08	7.6																					–	16%	–
8	Newcastle	-0.00	9.5																					–	6%	1%
9	Leeds	-0.11	10.7																					–	3%	3%
10	Bournemouth	+0.02	10.9																					–	3%	4%
11	Everton	-0.15	11.4																					–	2%	5%
12	Aston Villa	-0.03	11.7																					–	2%	6%
13	Tottenham	-0.01	12.6																					–	1%	9%
14	Nottingham Forest	-0.16	13.5																					–	1%	14%
15	Sunderland	-0.22	14.1																					–	–	18%
16	Fulham	-0.16	14.4																					–	–	21%
17	Crystal Palace	-0.24	15.0																					–	–	26%
18	Ipswich	-0.41	16.3																					–	–	42%
19	Coventry	-0.49	18.1																					–	–	71%
20	Hull	-0.72	18.5																					–	–	78%