Bayes FC

team ratings from the betting market

ratings as of 2026-09-21 · last rebuilt 2026-09-21 05:45 UTC

Who will be relegated from the Primeira Liga this season?
Where each club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings; darker is more likely. Releg is the share of simulated seasons the club finishes in a relegation place. Experimental — see the methodology.

As of 21 September 2026, Casa Pia is the most likely to be relegated from the Primeira Liga at 55%, ahead of Rio Ave (34%) and Nacional (33%).

#	Team	Rating	xPos	1				5					10					15			18	Title	Top 4	Rel
1	Benfica	+1.23	1.7																			50%	100%	–
2	Porto	+0.99	1.9																			36%	100%	–
3	Sp Lisbon	+1.04	2.5																			14%	100%	–
4	Sp Braga	+0.50	4.2																			–	82%	–
5	Santa Clara	-0.10	6.9																			–	7%	–
6	Famalicao	+0.14	7.4																			–	5%	–
7	Guimaraes	+0.07	9.2																			–	2%	2%
8	Arouca	-0.24	9.2																			–	2%	1%
9	Gil Vicente	-0.13	9.6																			–	1%	2%
10	Academico Viseu	-0.37	10.5																			–	1%	4%
11	Alverca	-0.25	10.8																			–	–	5%
12	Estrela	-0.34	11.1																			–	–	5%
13	Maritimo	-0.34	12.4																			–	–	11%
14	Estoril	-0.24	14.0																			–	–	25%
15	Moreirense	-0.56	14.0																			–	–	24%
16	Nacional	-0.39	14.7																			–	–	33%
17	Rio Ave	-0.43	14.8																			–	–	34%
18	Casa Pia	-0.58	16.0																			–	–	55%