Bayes FC

football power rankings from the betting market
ratings as of · last rebuilt

Estoril

Primeira Liga
Rating-0.67
In league-0.25vs league average
Attack-0.29
Defence-0.38
Global rank117of 132 · ▼1 this week
League rank11of 18
Games priced145

Strength over time
Rating, attack and defence after each daily fit, relative to the league average — zero is an average club in this league; a whole league moving does not show here (see Leagues). Dots are results; marks along the foot are club news, which never moves the rating. Drag to pan, pinch or shift-scroll to zoom, or use the slider; click a legend entry to hide a line.

Win / draw / lossNews

Get Estoril’s moves every week.

One email a week: where Estoril moved on the ladder, what it cost them, and what the next fixture is worth.

Powered by Buttondown.

Season projection beta
Where the club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings. The strip is the chance of each finishing position, 1st on the left, darker more likely. Experimental — see the methodology.

xPos15.5
Title–
Top 4–
Relegation43%
Played9
Points2
Goals5–15-10
15101518

Recent results
Every played match on record, from either feed. A match marked not priced yet has a scoreline but no closing price, so the rating has not seen it: the score arrives within a day, the price a few days later.

DateCompetitionOpponentScore
10-25Primeira LigaHMoreirense1–3L
10-10Primeira LigaAAcademico Viseu2–1L
09-20Primeira LigaHCasa Pia1–2L
09-14Primeira LigaASp Braga1–0L
09-07Primeira LigaHArouca0–0D
08-31Primeira LigaABenfica2–1L
08-22Primeira LigaHRio Ave0–2L
08-16Primeira LigaANacional2–0L
08-07Primeira LigaHFamalicao1–1D
05-16Primeira LigaHBenfica1–3L
05-10Primeira LigaAAlverca1–1D
05-03Primeira LigaASp Braga1–1D
04-26Primeira LigaHFamalicao0–1L
04-20Primeira LigaAMoreirense1–0L
04-12Primeira LigaHPorto1–3L

Latest 15 of 34 on record

Upcoming
The next fixtures, each shaded by the opponent's published rating — darker is a harder game, on one scale across every league. A dash is an opponent with no published rating (a lower-division cup side).

DateCompetitionOpponentOpp rating
10-31Primeira LigaAPorto+0.59
11-08Primeira LigaHMaritimo-0.81
11-29Primeira LigaAGil Vicente-0.53
12-06Primeira LigaHGuimaraes-0.34

Club news
Assembled automatically once a day by a language model reading public reporting. Descriptive only — nothing here moves a rating — and unverified: read an item as a lead, not a fact. A date marked learned is the day we picked the item up, not necessarily the day it happened. What news can explain is why the market repriced a club, which is upstream of the number.

DateTypeHeadline
10-20 ContractAntef Tsoungui — Antef Tsoungui signed a contract extension with Estoril through June 2030.
10-15 Manager outVasco Matos — Estoril announced the departure of manager Vasco Matos.
09-03 Transfer inAxel Camblan — Estoril signed winger Axel Camblan on a permanent three-year contract.

Automated and unverified — a lead, not a fact.