As of 6 November 2026, the Bundesliga title race has 1.2 effective contenders, unchanged this week. Bayern Munich is the most likely Bundesliga champion at 97%, ahead of Dortmund (3%) and Leverkusen (–).
| # | Team | Rating | xPos | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 18 | Title | Top 4 | Rel | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | +1.12 | 1.0 | 97% | 100% | – | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Dortmund | +0.50 | 2.6 | 3% | 93% | – | ||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Leverkusen | +0.43 | 4.0 | – | 69% | – | ||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | RB Leipzig | +0.29 | 4.3 | – | 61% | – | ||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Stuttgart | +0.29 | 5.7 | – | 32% | – | ||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Freiburg | +0.07 | 6.1 | – | 25% | – | ||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Hoffenheim | +0.13 | 8.0 | – | 8% | – | ||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Werder Bremen | -0.15 | 8.8 | – | 5% | 1% | ||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Mainz | +0.03 | 9.4 | – | 3% | 1% | ||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Ein Frankfurt | -0.06 | 9.7 | – | 3% | 2% | ||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Elversberg | -0.36 | 12.0 | – | – | 7% | ||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Augsburg | -0.22 | 12.2 | – | – | 9% | ||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | FC Koln | -0.21 | 12.8 | – | – | 11% | ||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | Schalke 04 | -0.29 | 14.3 | – | – | 25% | ||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | Hamburg | -0.42 | 14.3 | – | – | 26% | ||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | Paderborn | -0.44 | 14.8 | – | – | 32% | ||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | M'gladbach | -0.29 | 15.3 | – | – | 41% | ||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | Union Berlin | -0.44 | 15.6 | – | – | 45% |
One email a week: who moved on the Bundesliga ladder, what it cost them, and what the next fixture is worth.