Bayes FC

team ratings from the betting market

ratings as of 2026-09-21 · last rebuilt 2026-09-21 05:45 UTC

Who will be relegated from the Bundesliga this season?
Where each club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings; darker is more likely. Releg is the share of simulated seasons the club finishes in a relegation place. Experimental — see the methodology.

As of 21 September 2026, Paderborn is the most likely to be relegated from the Bundesliga at 45%, ahead of Union Berlin (36%) and Hamburg (33%).

#	Team	Rating	xPos	1				5					10					15			18	Title	Top 4	Rel
1	Bayern Munich	+1.07	1.0																			96%	100%	–
2	Dortmund	+0.46	2.6																			4%	92%	–
3	Leverkusen	+0.36	4.3																			–	62%	–
4	Stuttgart	+0.33	5.1																			–	47%	–
5	RB Leipzig	+0.30	5.1																			–	46%	–
6	Hoffenheim	+0.27	6.3																			–	26%	–
7	Freiburg	+0.02	7.2																			–	16%	–
8	Mainz	-0.01	8.8																			–	6%	1%
9	Ein Frankfurt	-0.11	10.8																			–	2%	5%
10	Werder Bremen	-0.23	11.3																			–	1%	6%
11	Augsburg	-0.23	11.3																			–	1%	6%
12	FC Koln	-0.17	11.9																			–	1%	9%
13	Elversberg	-0.36	12.7																			–	–	13%
14	Schalke 04	-0.30	13.1																			–	–	16%
15	M'gladbach	-0.23	14.5																			–	–	31%
16	Hamburg	-0.36	14.7																			–	–	33%
17	Union Berlin	-0.32	14.8																			–	–	36%
18	Paderborn	-0.48	15.5																			–	–	45%