Bayes FC

team ratings from the betting market

ratings as of 2026-09-21 · last rebuilt 2026-09-21 05:45 UTC

Who will be relegated from La Liga this season?
Where each club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings; darker is more likely. Releg is the share of simulated seasons the club finishes in a relegation place. Experimental — see the methodology.

As of 21 September 2026, Malaga is the most likely to be relegated from La Liga at 66%, ahead of Elche (45%) and Valencia (32%).

#	Team	Rating	xPos	1				5					10					15					20	Title	Top 4	Rel
1	Barcelona	+1.03	1.2																					83%	100%	–
2	Real Madrid	+0.93	1.9																					16%	100%	–
3	Atletico Madrid	+0.47	3.3																					1%	92%	–
4	Real Betis	+0.14	5.2																					–	48%	–
5	Athletic Bilbao	+0.23	6.3																					–	26%	–
6	Villarreal	+0.17	7.6																					–	12%	1%
7	Sevilla	-0.09	8.7																					–	7%	1%
8	Real Sociedad	-0.00	8.7																					–	7%	1%
9	Alaves	-0.11	10.4																					–	3%	4%
10	Celta Vigo	-0.02	10.4																					–	3%	4%
11	Rayo Vallecano	-0.16	11.9																					–	1%	9%
12	Osasuna	-0.18	12.7																					–	1%	12%
13	Espanyol	-0.18	13.3																					–	–	16%
14	La Coruna	-0.34	14.4																					–	–	23%
15	Getafe	-0.27	14.5																					–	–	24%
16	Levante	-0.31	15.1																					–	–	31%
17	Santander	-0.30	15.1																					–	–	31%
18	Valencia	-0.23	15.3																					–	–	32%
19	Elche	-0.38	16.3																					–	–	45%
20	Malaga	-0.40	17.7																					–	–	66%