Bayes FC

team ratings from the betting market

ratings as of 2026-09-21 · last rebuilt 2026-09-21 05:45 UTC

Who will be relegated from Ligue 1 this season?
Where each club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings; darker is more likely. Releg is the share of simulated seasons the club finishes in a relegation place. Experimental — see the methodology.

As of 21 September 2026, Le Havre is the most likely to be relegated from Ligue 1 at 50%, ahead of Le Mans (37%) and Troyes (34%).

#	Team	Rating	xPos	1				5					10					15			18	Title	Top 4	Rel
1	Paris SG	+1.12	1.1																			96%	100%	–
2	Monaco	+0.30	3.4																			2%	77%	–
3	Lille	+0.34	4.3																			1%	61%	–
4	Lyon	+0.25	4.9																			1%	49%	–
5	Rennes	+0.24	5.0																			–	47%	–
6	Lens	+0.35	6.2																			–	27%	–
7	Marseille	+0.24	7.1																			–	18%	–
8	Paris FC	-0.02	7.6																			–	13%	–
9	Strasbourg	-0.07	9.4																			–	4%	1%
10	Toulouse	-0.05	10.6																			–	2%	3%
11	Nice	-0.14	11.9																			–	1%	7%
12	Brest	-0.22	12.5																			–	–	10%
13	Lorient	-0.21	12.6																			–	–	10%
14	Auxerre	-0.39	14.2																			–	–	24%
15	Angers	-0.43	14.3																			–	–	24%
16	Troyes	-0.39	14.9																			–	–	34%
17	Le Mans	-0.49	15.1																			–	–	37%
18	Le Havre	-0.42	15.8																			–	–	50%