Bayes FC

football power rankings from the betting market
ratings as of · last rebuilt

Toulouse

Ligue 1
Rating+0.03
In league-0.03vs league average
Attack+0.02
Defence+0.01
Global rank69of 132
League rank9of 18
Games priced148

Strength over time
Rating, attack and defence after each daily fit, relative to the league average — zero is an average club in this league; a whole league moving does not show here (see Leagues). Dots are results; marks along the foot are club news, which never moves the rating. Drag to pan, pinch or shift-scroll to zoom, or use the slider; click a legend entry to hide a line.

Win / draw / lossNews

Get Toulouse’s moves every week.

One email a week: where Toulouse moved on the ladder, what it cost them, and what the next fixture is worth.

Powered by Buttondown.

Season projection beta
Where the club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings. The strip is the chance of each finishing position, 1st on the left, darker more likely. Experimental — see the methodology.

xPos10.4
Title–
Top 43%
Relegation1%
Played8
Points10
Goals12–11+1
15101518

Recent results
Every played match on record, from either feed. A match marked not priced yet has a scoreline but no closing price, so the rating has not seen it: the score arrives within a day, the price a few days later.

DateCompetitionOpponentScore
10-25Ligue 1HTroyes0–0D
10-16Ligue 1ALe Mans0–3W
10-10Ligue 1AMonaco2–2D
09-19Ligue 1HLe Havre3–2W
09-12Ligue 1ALorient2–2D
09-03Ligue 1HLille0–1L
08-29Ligue 1ABrest2–2D
08-22Ligue 1HLyon0–2L
05-17Ligue 1ANantes0–0D
05-10Ligue 1HLyon2–1W
05-03Ligue 1AStrasbourg1–2W
04-25Ligue 1HMonaco2–2D
04-17Ligue 1ALens3–2L
04-12Ligue 1HLille0–4L
04-03Ligue 1AParis SG3–1L

Latest 15 of 33 on record

Upcoming
The next fixtures, each shaded by the opponent's published rating — darker is a harder game, on one scale across every league. A dash is an opponent with no published rating (a lower-division cup side).

DateCompetitionOpponentOpp rating
11-01Ligue 1AMarseille+0.24
11-06Ligue 1HStrasbourg+0.00
11-21Ligue 1ALens+0.33
11-29Ligue 1HRennes+0.26
12-04Ligue 1HParis SG+1.13

Club news
Assembled automatically once a day by a language model reading public reporting. Descriptive only — nothing here moves a rating — and unverified: read an item as a lead, not a fact. A date marked learned is the day we picked the item up, not necessarily the day it happened. What news can explain is why the market repriced a club, which is upstream of the number.

DateTypeHeadline
09-30 learnedTransfer outMark McKenzie — Toulouse confirmed defender Mark McKenzie will leave to join Philadelphia Union on 1 January.
09-04 Transfer outYann Gboho — Yann Gboho completed a transfer from Toulouse to Coventry City.
08-26 Transfer outYlies Aradj — Ylies Aradj has joined Aubagne Air Bel on loan from Toulouse.
08-26 Transfer outMario Sauer — Mario Sauer has joined Kaiserslautern on loan from Toulouse.
08-21 Transfer outDayann Methalie — Dayann Methalie transferred from Toulouse to Sunderland.

Automated and unverified — a lead, not a fact.