Bayes FC

team ratings from the betting market

ratings as of 2026-09-21 · last rebuilt 2026-09-21 05:45 UTC

Who will be relegated from Serie A this season?
Where each club is likely to finish, from simulating the rest of the season on the current ratings; darker is more likely. Releg is the share of simulated seasons the club finishes in a relegation place. Experimental — see the methodology.

As of 21 September 2026, Parma is the most likely to be relegated from Serie A at 68%, ahead of Monza (51%) and Lecce (42%).

#	Team	Rating	xPos	1				5					10					15					20	Title	Top 4	Rel
1	Inter	+0.80	1.7																					60%	96%	–
2	Roma	+0.56	3.2																					15%	78%	–
3	Juventus	+0.68	3.4																					12%	76%	–
4	AC Milan	+0.52	4.1																					7%	60%	–
5	Como	+0.52	4.3																					5%	54%	–
6	Napoli	+0.41	5.8																					1%	23%	–
7	Atalanta	+0.27	7.2																					–	8%	–
8	Lazio	-0.02	8.1																					–	4%	–
9	Fiorentina	-0.02	11.2																					–	–	3%
10	Bologna	-0.01	11.7																					–	–	4%
11	Cagliari	-0.36	12.0																					–	–	4%
12	Sassuolo	-0.24	12.5																					–	–	7%
13	Frosinone	-0.35	12.7																					–	–	7%
14	Torino	-0.29	14.1																					–	–	17%
15	Udinese	-0.30	14.5																					–	–	20%
16	Genoa	-0.30	15.9																					–	–	36%
17	Venezia	-0.27	16.3																					–	–	41%
18	Lecce	-0.53	16.4																					–	–	42%
19	Monza	-0.48	17.0																					–	–	51%
20	Parma	-0.60	17.9																					–	–	68%